04/04/2017

Women And People Of Color Make Up The Majority Of The Trump Coalition

Matt Bruenig, Medium

In all of my years remarking on interesting stats, none has shocked people more than the one in the headline. But it’s true! In fact, it’s obviously true. It would be wild if it weren’t true.

The Numbers

The main source for how various demographic groups voted is the Edison exit poll. This poll is relied upon by every major media outlet: NY Times, Washington Post, Fox, CNN, Wall Street Journal, etc. All of their exit poll reporting comes from this singular source.

Here is how the Edison exit poll reported the race and gender breakdown of support in the 2016 election:

 

The number underneath each race+gender grouping is that group’s share of the electorate. So, for instance, the 34% under “white men” means that 34% of all voters were white men. The 7% under “black women” means that 7% of all voters were black women. And so on.

If you multiply each group’s share by their percent support for Trump, you can determine how many of Trump’s points came from that group. So, for white men, you would multiply 34% by 62% to get 21.08 points, meaning that 21.08 points of Trump’s 46.21 points came from white men. The rest, 25.13 points, came from women and people of color (you can check this yourself by doing the exact same math as I detailed for white men on every other group in that graphic and adding the points together).

Put more clearly, according to the Edison exit poll, 45.6% of Trump voters were white men, while 54.4% were women and people of color.

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