01/11/2017

Deutsche Bank Predicts Trump Economy Will More Than Double U.S. GDP Growth

The Last Refuge

Yup,… Still Walking in A Winner Wonderland

Interesting to see Duetsche Bank attempting to quantify a new economic dimension.  They also identify the construct of the two U.S. economies, Wall Street and Main Street, and present the following forward analysis:

[…]  “This policy will be successful in moving the U.S. economy away from low-growth secular stagnation towards significantly more buoyant performance. We would not be taken by surprise by a doubling of the growth rate of real GDP in the U.S. over the next two years, nor by a further significant move up of equity valuations and a material further appreciation of the dollar.”

~  David Folkerts-Landau, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank

Interestingly, heck, surprisingly, the Deutsche Bank analysis rebukes several years of global economic advocacy and theory. “This approach should produce a new order that will ultimately be more stable in the sense that ‘good fences make good neighbors,'” Folkers-Landau said.

The impact may not be felt immediately, but once the new agenda kicks in it will serve as a “game changer for the U.S. economy,” Folkerts-Landau added.  In raw numbers, that would push 2017 growth to 2.4 percent and 2018 up to 3.6 percent.

[…]  U.S. growth will bleed into the world economy, according to Deutsche, which pushed its 2017 global GDP forecast from 3 percent to 3.4 percent. (link)

Well, lookie there.  A reinvigorated U.S. economy actually driving the total of all global GDP forecasts higher by 14% over previous forecasts (GDP 3.0 -vs- GDP 3.4). This admission by Deutsche Bank is rather startling.

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ShadowStats alternate economic indicators are based on the methodology of noted economist John Williams, specialist in government economic reporting.

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*[cpi-u is the Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation rate for all urban consumers]